“The soaring rhetoric of four years ago may be toned down. The cheers from the crowd may be a little less loud. The nominee will show far more gray hair,” the New York Daily News is reporting.
“But even if the events are less lofty than the coronation in Colorado four years ago, the jam-packed three days of the Democratic National Convention that begins here Tuesday will have one goal: to convince undecided voters that President Obama deserves four more years to fulfill the promise of 2008.
“In a nod to Hispanic voters, Julian Castro, the charismatic young mayor of San Antonio will deliver the keynote address Tuesday evening.
“The night – which will include a taped message from former President Jimmy Carter – will culminate in Michelle Obama’s primetime speech. As with the GOP convention last week in Tampa, the broadcast networks are only showing the hour between 10 – 11 pm, meaning the heavy hitters will be late in each night’s lineup.
“Wednesday belongs to Bill Clinton. The former President enjoys sky-high approval ratings and has played a major role in the 2012 election, with both parties claiming that they are offering a return to the economic boom of the 1990s.”
The rest of the article is here.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Shoot, Even The Good Parts Of Texas Are Excited!
I was struck today by a graphic that Chuck Todd had up on MSNBC showing the percentage of voters in the USA who are ‘non-white’. The graphic showed the percentage of white voters steadily declining since 1996–from well above 80% to 74% in 2008. The percentage on ‘non-white’ voters is increasing by 2%-3% per cycle. In 2012 the percentage of ‘non-whites’ will likely be around 71%. Chuck Todd posits that this means that President Obama’s magic number in the white voting block is 40%. Win 40% of white voters and he wins the Presidency.
According to demographic studies this trend is expected to continue for at least the next 40 years, perhaps at an accelerated pace to begin with as Hispanics join the ranks, slowing near the end of that term. If that is the case the number of ‘non-white’ voters is likely to reach parity with white voters in about 2050.
This dynamic, coupled with and influenced by recently reading Taylor Branch’s excellent 3 volume history of the American civil rights movement, leads me to reflect on the role of race in this election.
I have recently been doing battle with some of our local righties over the issue of the use of racially charged language in the campaign. We all know what I am talking about: the use of the term ‘food stamp President’, the term ‘Welfare President’, painting President Obama as an ‘other’, a campaign advisor of Mr. Romney’s recently saying, “We are part of an Anglo-Saxon heritage, and he feels that the special relationship is special,” [referring to Mr. Romney]. The list could go on, but what is the point. If one hears the dog whistle it is piercing, if one is deaf to the sound, the exposure of it is counter-productive.
I believe that the powers that be in the Republican Party, with no lack of resources, has the same demographic information, and is doing the same micro-targeted calculation that the Obama team is; they know exactly how many white voters they need to get, and have a specific strategy to get them. That strategy includes targeted messages to the Catholic working class, evangelicals, suburban men, suburban women, and even voter suppresion to skew the numbers.
All of this leads me to the conclusion that the Republican Party is at almost the last election they can hope to win without seriously changing the policies they support.
Like it or not, ‘non-white’ voters are disproportionately under-class, poor, working, and lower middle class voters. Certainly there are notable exceptions, both socio-economically and philosophically, many of whom showed up on the stage in Tampa last week; and to project a single philosophy on this group of voters would be a serious mistake. But by and large ‘non-white’ voters vote in the 65%-90% range for Democrats. Consequently the incremental increase in ‘non-white’ voting population has a disproportionate impact on the final tally. And it is increasingly obvious that paying lip service to the needs of ‘non-white’ voters by inviting them to speak and buying them platforms to pontificate, is not enough. Non-white voters are extremely sensitive to the actual impacts of the policies one advances, because they are disproportionately affected because they are in general in the lower end of the socio-economic ladder. In the last several elections every effort by Republicans to reach out to ‘non-white’ voters, without policies that address their needs, has been un-successful.
So somewhere in Bush’s Brain (Rove) and other twisted recesses of the nation, there is a strategy being developed for the out years. How do Republicans increase their share of ‘non-white’ voters? How do they win in 2028? If Republicans do not address this issue we may be at the beginning of another historic ‘re-alignment’ in American electoral politics, potentially on par with the Jacksonian revolution shifting power to the working west, the Reconstruction re-alignment shifting power to urban north, and the flip flop of the Southern strategy shifting power to the white dominated south. This new re-alignment would look more like a shift of power to the urban islands of the nation, where population is disproportionately ‘non-white’ (there is a reason our local hicks are up here in the hills). To ignore this dynamic would be to relegate your party to minority status for years to come.
The reality is that no matter how much we wanted it to be true, America is not a post racial society quite yet. We hear it every day in the ghostly echoes of our past in this election, the references to ‘heritage’ ‘culture’ and ‘real-Americanism”. But it seems to me that we are on the cusp of a great change, a change that truly takes America to a post racial society. I just wonder when the republicans will wake up and smell the coffee. That is my morning rant.
oops, there is mistake in the first paragraph due to me twisted tense…”the percentage of ‘non-white’ voters will likely be around 29%”
Ooops…..Jeff kill the last.
Go to Chuck Todd’s Daily Rundown site and click on “Race in the Race” in the Latest Videos bar
http://rundown.msnbc.com
Here is a different look and take on the Democratic National Convention. Many who might of supported, volunteered, donated, and voted for candidate Obama in 08′ will not do so in 12′. I think the fact that the Democratic Party holding their convention in a “Right To Work For Less” state shows out of touch they are with the plight of the American worker and how little respect they have for their former biggest voting block and contributors.
In 08′ instead of holding AT&T accountable for spying on Americans with FISA Act, the DNC was held at AT&T Park in Denver also was officially sponsored by AT&T. This year the convention is at BofA stadium . Cozy relationships with the very industries and companies screwing the American people.
I’m watching Mayor Booker deliver a very fiery speech. With all due respect Ben I understand your disappointment with the seeming corporate takeover of our politics–but there is only one candidate who’s calling for a constitutional amendment to repeal Citizens United in this race. That is President Obama.
North Carolina is an emerging southern state and we are emerging out of a dark, backward time. We need to reclaim our struggling, striving middle and working people. They didn’t ask for this or their wages. The people who rammed thru Citizens United did. And we’ve sacrificed and suffered far too much for corporations and these people as it is.
Kate,
There is Jill Stein that has done more than just mention it at one rally she has campaigning on the idea from day one.
http://www.jillstein.org/dr_stein_rallies_movement_to_occupy_the_courts
If I remember correctly Obama ran on reining in the financial sector in 08′ and then it turns out his biggest donors came from that very sector. Then Dodd/ Frank left out the major reforms needed that would assure us what happened on 08′ financial crisis won’t happen again, coincidence I don’t think so. Obama ran on opposing FISA and Patriot Acts but now embraces them. Obama ran on opposing black prisons and reinstating due process but now has kill lists and will make government whistle blowers into political prisoners. I can go on but what the Obama administration and the Democratic Leadership are offering us are more of the same bad policies. We are told that we cannot hold them accountable because to do so would be equivalent to voting for the other and the end of the world would soon follow.
I am not buying it, is the Democratic Party better than the Republican Party? Much much better and if that is the only paradigm you are operating in please vote for the Democrats. What I ask of people is to vote their conscience and to hold those who sit in our government accountable because they are supposed to be our representatives not big money special interest lap dogs.
http://www.isidewith.com/
Jill Stein got the most for me-
Hah…so did I…95% Stein 93% Obama…..clearly there were no questions on pragmatism.
Thanks, that was fun!
I was 98% Dr Stein, 89% President Obama.
I came out Jill Stein too and guarantee most progressive democrats or hell just strong democrats and most DTS/ independents will find themselves with Jill Stein as well. Yet she won’t be allowed in the debates or will even be considered a legitimate candidate. There is something really wrong with our system when good candidates have to compromise their principles to have a chance at being elected. Who has their hands on the levers of control? The Democrats/ Republicans and they will never create rules, regulations, or laws that would actually give the American people a real choice on election day. We are given an illusion of a choice of two party’s that slightly differ on domestic issues but definitely have been compromised by major corruption. To me that is not a choice.
Three steps that all voters should promote
1) Please push the debates to have all candidates that have enough ballot access to receive enough electoral votes to become President of the United States of America.
2) Encourage the big two parties in all 50 states to drop the barriers for third/ independent/ minority parties access to the ballots.
3) Fair elections, public financing, and instant run off voting
If I had the energy I would pursue the arguments that everyone–except I presume magically some third party superhero–is a crook and a no good lying stooge of the corporate fatcats. It is a simple matter to excoriate every person of power who finds it impossible to achieve all they hoped for. Thinking that that just because a person wins a high position of power whom is not a Republican or Democrat, but just a third party person, IMO, displays an incredible political navite which will lead no where and never attain any victories. Cheers
“Dr.” George Rebane is still struggling with the concept of “government”:
http://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2012/09/democratic-convention-in-another-universe.html
Who does this fellow think plows his roads in the wintertime, pays for his Medicare, his UCLA retirement pension, VA home loans, “stimulus” check, police and fire, etc.? Wish I grew up with some of those benefits. Do people like George really think the taxes and fees he pays/paid covers the cost of all his activities, demands and public safety protections, not to mention the cost of that Ph.D schooling at a public university? People like George are selfish, entitled and clueless, all at the same time. It’s a fundamental difference between the hard right and the rest of us. When Obama is re-elected, will he reflect on all this? Nope. He’ll just demean the people who supported O. The good news is that it will be just one more reason to ignore his rants.
Jeff,
The funniest thing about George and it appears Russ as well are their entire livelihoods throughout their careers has been off of the taxpayers. Military, private industry that is based on defense, public university professors, and any profession came off the skills learned in the military or public university system that cost them virtually nothing (Pre-Governor Reagan). Railing against government while stuffing their pockets with tax payer money. As the saying goes “Truth is stranger than fiction”.
Careful Ben, calling them welfare Queens may lead to charges that you are unpatriotic…after all the military is not the government…it is Gods work.
Steve,
I asked George about what I wrote above one time. His response was he would have done just as good strictly in the private sector because of his intelligence and work ethic. I actual think that is true but the fact is he didn’t go that route he took the government road.
I was a roofer for Santa Clara County for about 10 months one year. I worked for a guy who I guarantee was a Christian right republican, he was as crooked as a dog hind leg. I quit because I couldn’t work for someone I didn’t respect despite being close to gaining full benefits and entry into the union. I sold my truck/ tools and moved to Hawaii. One of the best decisions I ever made.
Don’t you find it ironic that these guys think the government is alternately incompetent, tyrannical, thieving, and repressive, yet they will support almost any military action without question, and work for the government without qualm. Talk about not living your values
Steve,
Once again it would challenge their entire careers if they would question military spending, economic self preservation.
Ed,
I know what you are saying but the truth of the matter is the two party system was established over 200 years ago and it is time to move our electoral system out of the 19th and into the 21st century. The Democratic-Republicans, which became the Democratic Party were established in 1800 and the Republican Party was established in 1854. They both have been corrupted and compromised to the point of being unable to govern on the behalf of the governed but rather on behalf of big money special interests. Is there a practical solution, no I don’t really think so short of US Constitutional Amendment with some major electoral/ campaign reforms. But there is very little that seems pragmatic about an amendment and major reforms. I call it a ballot box revolution.
Ben, I understand your frustration and also know when then parties formed. There isn’t any real connections left between what was and wht is. I simply wonder where you will find the people in this vastly complex, diverse world who will maintain 100% virtue as political leaders. I don’t think you ever will, so excessive excoriation of all detracts from more imort issues. Many will not like this, but votes given to third party candidates unquestioningly helped give us Bush and a disasterous eight years.
I differ in that I advocate concentration on what is possible, one step at a time, like in nature, animals build homes a stick at a time, not by carrying the whole tree. I don’t feel your path leads to success. Not unless you renounce non-violence and put on the boxing gloves.
Ed,
The electorate and general population has to take up the issue of major campaign/ electoral reform and force the two parties to relinquish some power to move forward towards democracy and the real option of choice.
As it is stands now, if we are disillusioned with the D’s and R’s we have no where to go. Our best choice is the lesser of two evils. I voted for Obama in 08. In 2010 I voted for candidates in four different party affiliations, which included Barbara Boxer. If we dare to make the step away from the big two we are shackled with giving the election to the demonized other. It is never a good time to make big changes but nothing will ever change until we lose the fear of being a spoiler.
And then there’s our friend Todd Juvinall, who comments on George’s post:
“Michelle has that tortured smile on again. I hope O’Reilly has the babe on that does “body language” analysis. I don’t think she believes what the teleprompter was telling her to say.”
“Babe?” I wonder if Todd fancies himself as an “Aqua Velva man?” LOL.