While it might seem like election season already is in full swing, it’s still only August. But it’s a good time to revisit voter registration figures.
The data below from CSAC (California State Association of Counties) contains a wealth of information. It is here.
It shows how our county is politically “purple” (a mix of Republicans and Democrats) — in this case pink. Nevada County is pink, just like Butte County (with Chico St.) or San Luis Obispo County (with Cal Poly) for that matter. (A Romney-Ryan ticket plays to the hard right “R’s” in our County, though, as I’ve written before. Moderate “R’s” risk being “run over.”)
Compare our County with Lassen County, where Assembly Candidate Brian Dahle comes from, which is dark red. Or Modoc County, where Loren “Rags” Crabtree hails from. Let’s hope the winner between Dahle and Rick Bosetti works hard to build bridges across the aisle (unlike Tom McClintock).
Also interesting is the percentage of registered voters in our County, measured by supervisor districts. District 1 (Nate Beason) is almost a dead heat in registered Republicans and Democrats, at least partly helping to explain Nate’s lopsided win over tea party candidate Sue McGuire.
District 3 (Terry Lamphier) also is almost a dead heat between “R” and “D,” partly helping to explain his win over staunch conservative John Spencer. Any Republican is vulnerable in this district.
This balance of R. versus D. could bode well for Jim Firth (on the local Democratic Central Committee) in the Grass Valley City Council race. (Though supposedly nonpartisan, most local races aren’t). Six candidates are running for three seats in Grass Valley.
District 4 (Hank Weston) is “R,” but District 5 (Ted Owens and his successor Richard Anderson) is “D.” — canceling each other out.
The only runaway “R” district is District 2 — the one represented by Ed Scofield. I would argue that the biggest polarization in our County is between the South County and the region of Nevada City to the east, all the way to Truckee. Ed and Nate seem to be working on that, however (I think).
What’s more the number of “no party” (or swing) voters in our County is relatively high, compared with other and neighboring counties. They can help determine the outcome of any election. It will be worth watching the “no party” voters in November. As always, most of us are in the middle.
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Jeff–there seem to be 3-5% American Independent Party voters in the north state counties. This seems high–but if it is indeed the case, I suppose they would contribute to the more conservative candidates.
Indeed they would!
“Ed and Nate seem to be working on that, however (I think).”
Jeff, please explicate.
The two have been working well together on some nonpartisan initiatives in our county, ranging from economic development to marijuana regulation.
Thanks…
The growing number of registered voters that are DTS or minority party’s is the key demographic, around 25% of the electorate. If democrats are going to win in partisan races in the district they need to get a big majority of the 25%. Running conservative, quiet, and boring candidates isn’t the way to do it.
FYI – I pulled some GV voter info from the County a few weeks ago.
GV voters – registered voters at a 10 year low…
Today:July 2012: Reg GV voters 5873 Current, Perm Vote by mail 3789 Current
Nov 2010 Reg voters 6,314. voted 4,768 WITH A 75.5% TURNOUT.
Nov 2008 Reg Voters 6.896, voted 5,877 WITH A 85.2% TURNOUT.
Nov 2006 Total Reg. Voters 6862 Voted 4302 for 62.69%
Nov 2004 Total Reg. Voters 7025 Voted 5462 for 77.75%
Nov 2002 Total Reg. Voters 6347 Voted 3844 for 60.56%
County:All of Nevada County Currently has 58,554 registered voters.
In 2008 Nevada County had 63,850 registered voters.
GV current info:
Reg voters 5873 Current
Perm. Vote by mail 3789 Current
GV Voters Party affiliation as of July 2012
DEM 2154
REP 2060
DS 1301
AI 205
GRN 82
LIB 53
PF 18
Jeff,
I agree with you on our county becoming more purple but don’t like what it implies. It implies we are either democrats (liberal) or republicans (conservative), which neither are true. This is a big problem with the two party system where winner take all. It leaves huge segments of the populace without direct representation, which McClintock is the perfect example. He could care less of those people who didn’t vote for him or his party.
I did a quick search to find what the registration numbers of Nevada County where 30 years ago when the big shift happened in our federal government and society in general. I didn’t find the registration numbers but did find in 84′ Reagan got 62% – Mondale 35% and in 08′ Obama got 51% – McCain 46%. That is a 32% swing over the last 30 years. Those who make fun of the purple comment are not living in reality.