A serious “progressive” candidate is expected run in District 1 against Nate Beason, the moderate Republican, and Sue McGuire, whom the tea party is supporting, according to my sources.
For some time, there had been speculation that the progressives would sit out June’s District 1 race — but “nope, it ain’t going to happen.” They want to rally around their own candidate.
Democrat Terry Lamphier has done a good job as supervisor, working well with the conservative board, they note. He also has done a very good job being independent minded and avoiding getting caught up in any decision-making that hinted of partisanship, they add. This cannot be said of the other “block” of conservative board members, they argue.
Though the final candidate has not been chosen yet, “progressive” supporters are culling through a list of possibles and holding discussions with them. (I do not want to put anyone on the spot yet, because the situation is still fluid).
From a strategic viewpoint, the progressives point to this: the tea party dividing the GOP between a tea party candidate (McGuire) and and a moderate (Beason) — just like in the national elections. (We’ve written about this many times before).
This could benefit the progressives, because half the registered voters in district 1 are Democrat (“progressive”) and the other half are Republican (Beason or McGuire). It’s the “50 percent plus 1″ rule to get elected.
Though Beason will capture some Democrat votes — he has done a good job — he also will lose some Republican votes to McGuire by far right ideologues who had supported him in the past.
Even the county Contractors Association could end up endorsing McGuire (developers are mad at Beason for voting for the airport plan). McGuire also could get some “out of town” money, as well as some hard-ball consulting (as Sue Horne did when running for assessor). The hard right plays hard ball, as we all have noticed recently.
Beason, on the other hand, is expected to benefit from the endorsement of other supervisors — at least Ted Owens and Hank Weston. (Watch to see whom Ed Scofield, who also is running, endorses — or whether he “sits out” an endorsement).
Ed himself is running, and is expected to face a candidate who opposes the Rincon Del Rio project.
Ted also is running for re-election but is expected to face no serious opposition.