Jeff Pelline's Sierra Foothills Report

It’s premature to be predicting the winner of the 2012 Presidential race. But I’m going to make one: President Obama will be re-elected. (Feel free to print out this post, bury it in a time capsule and dig it up in two years).

Before you become dismissive, don’t forget that I predicted that Prop. 23 would lose by a landslide a long time ago (and it did). I always underestimate the nastiness, though.

I also thought Jerry Brown would win and tea party extremists such as Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell would lose. I’m going to collect on those bets soon. After many years, you learn to “read” people (though outright lying makes the task tougher) and being pragmatic helps.

Here’s why Obama is in the driver’s seat: This week he passed the litmus test to show he can compromise. Yup, most of us are centrists, not extremists.

Many of Obama’s detractors think he’s too idealistic to be like Bill Clinton, who moved to the center and got re-elected.

But President Obama is showing his political mettle. Many people on the right (and our nation’s biggest problem, the hard right) just want to see him fail.

I continue to think some people don’t like him because of the color of his skin — very sad, since it is almost 55 years to the day that Rosa Parks refused to sit down at the back of a bus, helping to spark a needed civil rights movement. Racism remains a big problem in our nation, as I reminded my son the other day.

On the left, Democrats increasingly are angry that Obama hasn’t fought harder to block $700 billion in tax credits to millionaires while the GOP is holding millions of unemployed people hostage by declining to extend their unemployment benefits during the holidays.

Now, however, it looks like Obama is going to disappoint both ends of the political spectrum. He’s likely going support a deal to extend the tax breaks for all. After all, we’re experiencing the worst economic slump in decades.

Many Democrats make a cogent point about holding the line on tax breaks to the wealthy in a recession, and I think a well-orchestrated campaign would resonate with the American public — if it isn’t already — and ding the emboldened tea party Congress.

On the other hand, showing a willingness to compromise is an important characteristic with such a polarized electorate.

The GOP thinks they are running the show after November’s election results, but they don’t even have a leader for 2012. The Democrats will rally behind Obama when push comes to shove. Who else will they support?

So in the end, Obama is proving to be like Clinton — except, and I appreciate this, he doesn’t get entwined in embarrassing sex scandals.

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The county is preparing for more job cuts to cope with its budget shortfall, according to the Friday memo at the Rood Center.

“Staff reductions were identified as one of the avenues that would need to be considered in order to resolve our budget problems,” according to the memo by County Executive Officer Rick Haffey. “As a result, I will begin meeting with Agency Department heads next week to review current vacancies and potential staff reductions.”

Somc county agencies have notified the state that the “county is preparing for staff reductions early in the calendar year,” according to state regulations.

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The Union is teasing a “print-first” special this weekend about a decision to build a new county courthouse — and what I see as a growing likelihood that it will leave the historic downtown.

I’m letting you in on the “scoop” now, because it’s vital information for our community to know ASAP if they want to influence any decision-making (Besides, we live in an “online-first” world now, thanks to the internet):

The leading candidates are county owned property beyond Juvenile Hall up near the Rood Center and a parcel at Cement Hill Rd. and Hwy 49 known as the “Pello” parcel, as well as the site where the former Nevada City Elementary school is located (which has been met with opposition).

For now, at least, building a new courthouse on the existing site is not even on the list. Some court officials (including judges) are concerned about the “inconvenience” of being in a temporary space while a permanent courthouse would be built on the existing site.

This is not uncommon for such a project, however, including the retrofit of historic San Francisco government buildings from earthquake damage.

Many people also see the value of honoring and preserving the history of courthouse buildings throughout California, rather than a “cookie cutter” approach. A book called Courthouses of California: An Illustrated History is here.

Here’s where the public can get involved on this decision that will impact the downtown’s economic vitality: A public meeting is set for 6 p.m. on Tuesday, Dec. 14, at the Rood Center, where the state will present its top choices and allow the public to comment.

“We’re strongly working at getting it in place where it is,” City Manager Gene Albaugh told me despite what the state is proposing.

The City of Nevada City and a group of business and civic called “Save the Courthouse” will continue to lobby for rebuilding the site on its existing location.

In addition, a short list of architects has been quietly released too — and none of them are local.

If the courthouse — an icon in the downtown — winds up at either of the two locations outside the historic district, it will be a blow to merchants and restaurants, as well as landlords who rent the space to the District Attorney’s office and others.

There definitely is an economic “trickle down” effect from having the courthouse within walking distance of the downtown.

The state’s $108 million plan calls for six new courtrooms in a modern, secured building of 83,782 square feet, replacing the outdated facility. Expected completion would be in 2015. Details of the announcement are here.

A short-list of architects has been quietly posted on the state administrative office of the courts website. They are: Esherick Homsey Dodge and Davis, Architects (EHDD) of San Francisco; Heery International of Folsom; HMC Architects of Sacramento; KMD Architects of San Francisco: SmithGroup Inc. of San Francisco and Tate Snyder Kimsey Caldwell of Los Angeles.

I’d at least hope a local architecture firm would be added as a “subcontractor” later.

Here’s a FAQ on the courthouse that was published in September that I haven’t seen publicized. It is here.

Q: Will the new courthouse stay in downtown Nevada City? Within the city limits?
A: The Superior Court of Nevada County and the AOC recognize the strong community support for keeping the courthouse in downtown Nevada City. We are working with community leaders to explore every option for doing so, and we are pursuing every manner of community collaboration that would be required to meet that goal. However, in keeping with its site selection policy and process, the AOC must seek and evaluate all feasible options for siting the courthouse that fit the court’s functional criteria, and options within downtown Nevada City are very limited. Therefore, the AOC’s preliminary site search and evaluation may also include options outside downtown Nevada City.”

Here’s some background on the issue from my previous reports:

•”Bombshell: State admits to “grave error” in Nevada City courthouse report”
•”My sources: Nevada City courthouse report flawed“
•”No school, no courthouse, no vibrancy”
•“Downtown courthouse vs. relocated charter school? You’re kidding me.
•“Adios Downtown Nevada City Courthouse”

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This TGIF humor from the S.F. Chronicle, which attended our governor’s final address to the Sacramento Press Club:

“Schwarzenegger drew laughs when he opened his talk to the club’s Gridiron Dinner — an annual benefit for journalism scholarships — by saying he was ‘probably the second most famous immigrant in the history of California.’

“‘The first,’ he deadpanned, ‘is Meg Whitman’s maid.’”

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Editor’s note: As San Francisco-based Francisco Partners gets closer to acquiring Thomson Grass Valley by year-end, I am reposting my analysis of why the deal is a good fit:

I worked in Silicon Valley for over a decade as a technology editor, covering the IPOs of Netscape and Yahoo, Apple Computer’s re-emergence from its darkest days, the Microsoft antitrust trial — and participated in an IPO myself, at CNET. (CNET has since been sold to CBS for nearly $2 billion).

Based on my experience and knowledge, I can tell you with great certainty that Thomson Grass Valley’s buyer — San Francisco-based Francisco Partners — is a blue-chip private equity firm that can be expected to keep the big high-tech firm intact and lend needed stability to its operations. The deal — expected to close by year-end — also could help raise our area’s stature in tech, with some key Silicon Valley connections. Here’s why:

Founded in 1999, Francisco is literally a “who’s who” of Silicon Valley’s most successful luminaries. Its founders include “Sandy” Robertson, an investment banking guru going back to the ’70s who is the champion of high tech.

And here’s the kicker: Francisco’s strategic partner is Sequoia Capital, one of Silicon Valley’s most storied venture capital firms. Among others, Sequoia has helped take Google, Yahoo and Cisco public — among tech’s most famous firms. (I know one of its chief partners, Michael Moritz, going back to my days as a “stringer” or freelancer for Time magazine in the early ’80s; Michael, now a famous VC, was a Time correspondent then. We worked in the L.A. and S.F. bureaus. Michael wrote a book about Apple.)

To be sure, there are risks to Francisco’s acquisition of Thomson Grass Valley: the video technology business faces many challenges. Its biggest customers include network television companies, which have struggled through the recession.

The stakes are high — not just for “The Group,” founded in 1959 as a tiny R&D firm by Donald Hare, but for our community: The firm, which still will be called “Grass Valley” going forward, employs hundreds of people and is one of Nevada City’s largest tax providers. Losing the firm would be a major blow to our area — in employment and tax receipts.

For its part, Francisco Partners specializes in investments in information technology. It was founded at the height of the tech boom.

With a staff of 30 investment professionals, Francisco combs the world for well-performing businesses often trapped inside much larger companies that no longer want the ventures they snapped up during the buyout binge of the ’90s. “The Group,” being sold by French conglomerate Thomson, is just that sort of venture. Thomson, facing deep financial problems, put the firm up for sale in February 2009.

At $100 million, the buyout fits within the sweet spot of Francisco’s transaction range of “$30 million to $2 billion.” All told, Francisco has about $5 billion invested in a porfolio of about 40 businesses, including hardware and systems, software, service and semiconductor related businesses. A list of its investments is here.

“The whole idea of Francisco Partners is to find good companies in information and communications technology, which have a good predictable market position,” according to a case study of the firm. “This is a crucial difference with the VC funds, where selection of IT companies is quite random, because no one can predict whether a company will succeed or fail.”

All the founding partners of Francisco have broad experience in technology and investing activities, as well as specifics of technology business, as the case study notes.

Francisco also enjoys a “preferred, long-term relationship” with Sequoia, which provides a source of investment ideas and strategic council. More information on Sequoia Capital is here.

The timing of the deal could be a good one for Francisco. As Francisco’s David Golob told The Wall Street Journal: “2010 is likely to witness improving fundamentals. In my opinion, the capital markets are already discounting a significant improvement in fundamentals in 2010, so, in a reversal of the 2009 dynamic, I would expect any further gains in the capital markets to lag the improvement in fundamentals in 2010.

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Former county supervisor Crawford Bost — a conservative who heartily endorsed Sue Horne for Assessor and whose political “offspring” includes none other than Todd Juvinall — is appealing a decision to deny subdividing his land outside of Nevada City.

It will be heard by county supervisors on Tuesday. The agenda is here.

The county Zoning Administrator is concerned about proper emergency access in the event of a fire. It is a classic example of the regulations vs. public safety argument that surfaces here and, in this case, pits a former supervisor against a county department that wants to follow the law. Nevada County Engineering is making the case for Bost.

“Consider acceptance of appeal from Crawford and Josie Bost, from the November 17, 2010 decision of the Nevada County Zoning Administrator to deny PM09-009; EIS09-018; MGT 09-017; M110-004 Tentative Parcel Map application on B-4 Ranch Road, and schedule a public hearing for January 11, 2011.”

I will be interested to see how the county supervisors, some of whom are friends with Bost, respond.

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This was statement was issued today by Google. It’s a very interesting initiative:

“Today, we launched a new Google Labs product called Google Earth Engine at the International Climate Change Conference in sunny Cancun, Mexico. Google Earth Engine is a new technology platform that puts an unprecedented amount of satellite imagery and data—current and historical—online for the first time. It enables global-scale monitoring and measurement of changes in the earth’s environment. The platform will enable scientists to use our extensive computing infrastructure—the Google “cloud”—to analyze this imagery. Last year, we demonstrated an early prototype. Since then, we have developed the platform, and are excited now to offer scientists around the world access to Earth Engine to implement their applications.

Why is this important? The images of our planet from space contain a wealth of information, ready to be extracted and applied to many societal challenges. Scientific analysis can transform these images from a mere set of pixels into useful information—such as the locations and extent of global forests, detecting how our forests are changing over time, directing resources for disaster response or water resource mapping.

The challenge has been to cope with the massive scale of satellite imagery archives, and the computational resources required for their analysis. As a result, many of these images have never been seen, much less analyzed. Now, scientists will be able to build applications to mine this treasure trove of data on Google Earth Engine, providing several advantages:

•Landsat satellite data archives over the last 25 years for most of the developing world available online, ready to be used together with other datasets including MODIS. And we will soon offer a complete global archive of Landsat.

•Reduced time to do analyses, using Google’s computing infrastructure. By running analyses across thousands of computers, for example, unthinkable tasks are now possible for the first time. New features that will make analysis easier, such as tools that pre-process the images to remove clouds and haze.

•Collaboration and standardization by creating a common platform for global data analysis. Google Earth Engine can be used for a wide range of applications—from mapping water resources to ecosystem services to deforestation. It’s part of our broader effort at Google to build a more sustainable future. We’re particularly excited about an initial use of Google Earth Engine to support development of systems to monitor, report and verify (MRV) efforts to stop global deforestation.

Deforestation releases a significant amount of carbon into the atmosphere, accounting for 12-18% of annual greenhouse gas emissions. The world loses 32 million acres of tropical forests every year, an area the size of Greece. The United Nations has proposed a framework known as REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) that would provide financial incentives to tropical nations to protect their forests. Reaching an agreement on early development of REDD is a key agenda item here in Cancun.

Today, we announced that we are donating 10 million CPU-hours a year over the next two years on the Google Earth Engine platform, to strengthen the capacity of developing world nations to track the state of their forests, in preparation for REDD. For the least developed nations, Google Earth Engine will provide critical access to terabytes of data, a growing set of analytical tools and our high-performance processing capabilities. We believe Google Earth Engine will bring transparency and more certainty to global efforts to stop deforestation.

Over the past two years, we’ve been working with several top scientists to fully develop this platform and integrate their desktop software to work online with the data available in Google Earth Engine. Those scientists—Greg Asner of the Carnegie Institution for Science, Carlos Souza of Imazon and Matt Hansen of the Geographic Information Science Center at South Dakota State University—are at the cutting edge of forest monitoring in support of climate science.

In collaboration with Matt Hansen and CONAFOR, Mexico’s National Forestry Commission, we’ve produced a forest cover and water map of Mexico. This is the finest-scale forest map produced of Mexico to date. The map required 15,000 hours of computation, but was completed in less than a day on Google Earth Engine, using 1,000 computers over more than 53,000 Landsat scenes (1984-2010). CONAFOR provided National Forest Inventory ground-sampled data to calibrate and validate the algorithm.

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